EV Manufacturing Workforce Grows, Contrary to Earlier Predictions

The president of a Europe-based CNC machine tool manufacturing company spelled it out to me almost a decade ago in Detroit: He explained that the coming transition to electric vehicles (EVs) would have a huge impact on the automotive industry because EV engines require fewer precision parts than internal-combustion engines (ICEs)—which meant fewer machining centers of the type his company makes will be required.

“And of course,” he added grimly, “it means throughout the supply chain, only a fraction of the current workforce will be needed.”

That’s been an accepted truism in the industry for years. But is it so? New research raises questions.

EV production uses more, not fewer, workers

University of Michigan researchers found that battery electric vehicle (BEV) plants in the U.S. are requiring more workers than traditional ICE plants, a development that defies those earlier expectations. The researchers find that during the ramp-up stages of transitioning to EV production, assembly jobs at certain plants increased by as much as tenfold. Even after a decade of production, one plant still required three times as many workers per vehicle compared to ICE production.

Workers at a Ford plant in Dearborn, Michigan, beneath the body of a fully-electric Ford F-150 Lightning in 2022. Credit: Brenda Ahearn, Michigan Engineering

“There is a shortage of information out there about how the transition is shaping up,” stated Anna Stefanopoulou, the William Clay Ford Professor of Technology and senior author of the study, published in Nature Communications. “What we're seeing, with the data that's available, is that the loss of employment predicted for EVs is not happening.”

Related:US Battery Workforce: Roles, Experience, and Pay Trends

Predictions and reality

Estimates from as early as 2017 suggested that EV manufacturing would lead to a 30-40% reduction in assembly jobs, with the potential loss of over 200,000 positions. The rationale behind this assumption was the simpler powertrain designs of EVs, which require around 100 fewer parts than their gas-powered counterparts. As recently as 2022, reports from media outlets like CleanTechnica highlighted concerns over reductions in assembly jobs as well as maintenance roles, as EVs are less complex and require far less servicing. However, the University of Michigan study’s findings challenge this assumption.

U-M researchers pointed to several key factors contributing to higher workforce numbers at EV plants:

Related:DOE Pushes for EV/Battery Workforce Growth—But the Jobs Aren’t There Yet

The Hackett prediction

The 30% job loss figure is frequently linked to former Ford president and CEO James Hackett, who made this forecast in 2017. Omar Ahmed, a U-M graduate student research assistant and co-author of the study, highlighted the lack of real-world data supporting that forecast. “It’s a number that has been repeated by a lot of big names in the auto industry,” stated Ahmed. “But if you look closely, no one’s really done the work to look at real plants that have transitioned from building ICE vehicles to building EVs.”

A closer look at US EV plants

The research focused on three U.S. plants that have fully transitioned from ICE to EV production: Tesla’s Fremont, CA factory; Rivian’s facility in Normal, IL; and GM’s plant in Orion Township, MI. Public census data and automotive production statistics spanning two decades were used to track workforce trends.

University of Michigan Prof. Anna Stefanopoulou, a co-author of the new report, speaks at a Battery Train the Trainer Bootcamp in 2023. Credit: Marcin Szczepanski, Michigan Engineering

“Our work shows clearly that the number of assembly workers in the plants has increased in many cases,” stated Andrew Weng, a U-M research fellow and co-author. However, Weng noted that future job trends, particularly in parts manufacturing, will depend on where battery cell production is concentrated.

Tesla’s Fremont plant, operational for over ten years, offered valuable insights. According to Gabriel Ehrlich, an associate research scientist and director of U-M’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, labor efficiency has improved, but the process is slow. “The pace of improvement indicates that it can take up to 15 years for a plant to reach parity with its ICE predecessor,” Ehrlich explained. “It’s going to be a slow process, one that gives communities, companies, and workers time to adjust.”

The research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation.