Bloomberg Predicts 50 Percent Global EV Sales by 2030Bloomberg Predicts 50 Percent Global EV Sales by 2030

Global passenger EV sales growth is slowing. EV sales will grow at an average of 21 percent annually over the next four years, compared to an average of 61 percent between 2020 and 2023.

Internal combustion vehicle sales have peaked. Sales of internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and by 2027 are 29 percent lower than that peak. Hybrids continue to play a meaningful role, as adoption reaches between 5 percent and 45 percent of sales by 2030 in our outlook, depending on the market.

Overcapacity will become an issue for battery makers. Planned lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 is more than five times the 1.5 terawatt-hour global battery demand expected that year. By 2035, annual lithium-battery demand will grow to 5.9 terawatt-hours.

Less-costly lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) are increasing market share. Incredibly, their cost in China has fallen to just $53/kWh so far this year. This will push LFP to 50 percent share of the global passenger EV market within the next two years. Correspondingly, nickel, and manganese consumption by 2025 will be 25 percent and 38 percent lower, respectively, this year than in the previous forecast.

Plug-in hybrids are gaining momentum. The average PHEV range is increasing, reaching 50 miles in 2023, making these vehicles more attractive. The issue is how often they are used in electric mode because if PHEVs displace battery EV sales but their drivers are not using their full electric potential by plugging them in regularly, they can add to both oil consumption and emissions.

EVs are driven more than their combustion counterparts! BloombergNEF noted large variation from one country to another, with the U.S., where fuel is comparatively cheap, as an outlier. In countries with costly fuel, drivers are taking advantage of the lower cost of electricity by driving EVs more.

Electric heavy trucks become economically viable by 2030. Battery-electric trucks will be mostly used in urban duty cycles initially. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains, BloombergNEF predicts.